India’s GDP to grow by over 9.5% in FY 22: SBI research report
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by more than 9.5 percent in fiscal year 2021-2022, according to an SBI-Ecowrap research report.
The economy grew 8.4% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, according to data released Tuesday by the National Statistics Office (NSO). Growth in the April to June quarter of this fiscal year was 20.1%.
During the October monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India maintained its projection of real GDP growth at 9.5% in 2021-2022, of which 7.9% in the second quarter. ; 6.8% in the third quarter; and 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021-2022.
We think real GDP growth would now be higher than RBI’s estimate of 9.5 percent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct, the research report said.
Real GDP growth could be close to 10 percent, he added.
The report says GDP grew 8.4% in the second quarter of FY22 thanks to double-digit growth in mining and quarrying, public administration, defense and other services. . Real GVA increased 8.5 percent, slightly more than GDP growth.
In the first half of FY21, the country posted a real GDP loss of Rs 11.4 lakh crore (on an annual basis) due to a full foreclosure in April-May and a partial foreclosure in June-September, he added.
The situation improved in FY 22 and in the first half of FY 22 the actual gain was around Rs 8.2 lakh crore.
This indicates that the actual loss of Rs 3.2 lakh crore has yet to be recovered to reach the pre-pandemic level, according to the report.
Sectoral data indicates that trade, hotels, transport, communications and broadcasting-related services are still the most affected, and the actual loss of Rs 2.6 lakh crore has yet to be recouped in these sectors, a- he noted.
Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6% of the pre-pandemic level (with commerce, hotels, transport, communications and broadcasting-related services still at 80%) and is expected to take a quarter more to recover losses.
In the second quarter of fiscal 22, the FMCG sector grew 11% year-on-year, while EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and PAT increased by 4 % each.
However, rural markets, which have shown good resilience so far during the pandemic, have slowed over the past two months, as some of the industry’s majors suggest, according to the report.
The research report says new investment announcements for the current year look encouraging, with around Rs 8.6 lakh crore investment announcements made so far in the last seven months of FY22.
With the private sector contributing about 67% of this Rs 5.80 lakh crore, it seems that a recovery in private investment is on the horizon, he added.
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